Highly likely Saudia Arabia or another Sunni-majority country will normalize relations with Israel in order to increase international support in the face of criticism related to human rights.
0.39111
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel could continue to struggle to manage to build a governing coalition, or a far-right part with harsh anti-islam rhetoric could gain office.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
He has shown no motivation to step into power.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might push Medvedev into office in order to reduce the international criticism aimed at him and in turn Russia.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
I doubt they would risk taking resources and funding away from their military at this current moment. But due to the failures of hypersonic missiles and other prestige-earning technology a moon mission may be used as a morale booster.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The Russian struggle to invade Ukraine, combined with the acknowledged difficulties in achieving a successful amphibious assault will dissuade the Chinese government to launch an offensive in the immediate future.
Why might you be wrong?
A blockade could be possible and could be launched if they feel as if they have naval superiority and the US wouldn't intervene.