Confirmed previous forecast
0.011332
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
1. Strike of scriptwriters and actors in the USA, where one of the reasons is the introduction of artificial intelligence into their activities
2. in mid-June, the series "Secret Invasion" was released, where after the release it turned out that the opening credits of the series were created using neural networks, which caused dissatisfaction among viewers and Marvel fans
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The forecast is justified based on the following factors.
1. The All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion has published updated ratings of the president, the government and political parties represented in the State Duma. According to the VTsIOM survey, which was conducted from June 19 to 25, 2023, 74.8% of respondents positively assess Vladimir Putin's activities as president.
2. Putin has consistently won Russian presidential elections. in 2000, he won with a score of 52.94% in 2004 with a score of 71.31%, in 2012 with a score of 63.60%, in 2018 with a score of 76.69%.
3. In accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the President may be elected after amendments to the Constitution in 2020 for two more terms
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Why might you be wrong?
This is influenced by many factors - age, illness, falling ratings, Putin's desire to participate in the elections
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