RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	-1%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025	Oct 23, 2024	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025	Oct 23, 2024	99%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	8%	7%	+1%	-1%
Armenia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Georgia	4%	3%	+1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025	Dec 23, 2024	5%	+1%	+1%
No	94%	Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025	Dec 23, 2024	95%	-1%	-1%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025	Oct 23, 2024	17%	-9%	+9%
No	92%	Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025	Oct 23, 2024	83%	+9%	-9%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	94%	96%	-2%	+0%
No	6%	4%	+2%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	41%	39%	+2%	-2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	54%	56%	-2%	+3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	5%	5%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Dec 27, 2024	3%	+0%	+0%
No	97%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Dec 27, 2024	97%	+0%	+0%

Rishab-Bhattarai

Rishab Bhattarai

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