RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025	Feb 12, 2025	12%	-6%	+4%
No	94%	Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025	Feb 12, 2025	88%	+6%	-4%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	94%	97%	-3%	+0%
No	6%	3%	+3%	+0%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	32%	37%	-5%	+6%
No	68%	63%	+5%	-6%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	24%	21%	+3%	+0%
No	76%	79%	-3%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	26%	24%	+2%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	35%	39%	-4%	+4%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	53%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	57%	-4%	+1%
No	47%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	43%	+4%	-1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	39%	35%	+4%	-2%
No	61%	65%	-4%	+2%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	17%	19%	-2%	+0%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	73%	72%	+1%	-1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	9%	8%	+1%	+1%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	5%	+4%	-2%
No	91%	95%	-4%	+2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025	Feb 12, 2025	22%	+1%	+1%
No	77%	Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025	Feb 12, 2025	78%	-1%	-1%

Rishab-Bhattarai

Rishab Bhattarai

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