The Russia-Ukraine war makes my probability low. However, I think it is possible that it will go as planned to boost Russian pride.
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
13%
(-12%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
The Russia-Ukraine war makes my probability lower.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Recent increased tensions, as well as years and years of tensions.
Why might you be wrong?
They have verbally agreed to this agreement.