kuudes

keeping current forecast. A friend guessed from some tea leaves that share price might be around 180$ around the judgement day, based on current projections on Blackwell sales. There seems to be little to gain currently from options market though given the general optimism level. I guess I expect it will still dip a couple of times.

Again, geopolitical risk seems rather relevant. A lot will depend on what the new presidential administration will decide on policies, I think.

There are plenty of places to build datacenters to, electricity seems a big bottleneck. Currently 1 W of datacenter GPUs seems to cost about 10$ for investment costs to GPUs if I recall correctly. Therefore if there was 10 GW new GPU datacenter construction in a year, that would already mean 100 G$ of GPU sales for the same. Given how far AMD is behind, it seems likely Nvidia will manage to keep 90% market share. Other competitors seem so far away that they are unlikely to affect Nvidia's position before the judgement of the prediction. Apple is relevant because it competes for same fab capacity, but it seems to me Apple is not making M1 datacenters, so it does not compete in the actual business area, just on the capacity side. This means that 90% of the datacenter GPU investment costs will be revenue of Nvidia. The basic question is how many gigawatts of GPU datacenter investments will start before the judgement day.