Potential misqualification of human work as AI work
0.152178
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
45%
Yes
55%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It doesn't seem like a pressing thing these companies want to roll out.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe as an experiment…
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
Less than or equal to 49
39%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
22%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
14%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 200
Violence seems to be going down rapidly
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files