There are a lot of countries out there, and some of them really like banning new, shiny stuff that they don'There are a lot of countries out there, and some of them really like banning new, shiny stuff that they don't understand.t understand.
0.753442
Relative Brier Score
3
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0
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
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Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Releasing GPT5 (despite Sama claiming under oath that it wasn't going to be trained for the next 6 months) could provoke aggressive regulations against further model enhancements. Strategically it seems to make far more sense for OpenAI to play ball with regulators now to try to ensure that regulations are favourable for them, rather than risk their ire.
Regulatory questions aside, it's plausible that they are are also bottlenecked by data or compute. Sama also claimed this was pretty much the end of the road for the current paradigm (not that I particularly buy that), so maybe OAI will focus on trying to find a new one.
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Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
A cursory Google search suggests Russia's space program is falling apart, and presumably the Ukraine war is of far bigger concern/demand for resources.
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