Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 10:53PM
(29 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 10:53PM
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 5% | +70% | -2% |
| No | 25% | 95% | -70% | +2% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 2, 2025 07:33PM
(27 days ago)
Mar 2, 2025 07:33PM
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47% | Mar 2, 2025 to Sep 2, 2025 | Apr 2, 2025 07:33PM | 3% | +44% | +0% |
| No | 53% | Mar 2, 2025 to Sep 2, 2025 | Apr 2, 2025 07:33PM | 97% | -44% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 11:56AM
(14 days ago)
Mar 16, 2025 11:56AM
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47% | Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025 | Apr 16, 2025 11:56AM | 6% | +41% | -1% |
| No | 53% | Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025 | Apr 16, 2025 11:56AM | 94% | -41% | +1% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 11:56AM
(14 days ago)
Mar 16, 2025 11:56AM
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 73% | 9% | +64% | +0% |
| Bolivia | 53% | 13% | +40% | +1% |
| Ecuador | 46% | 8% | +38% | +0% |
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 12:07PM
(14 days ago)
Mar 16, 2025 12:07PM
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 30% | +22% | -8% |
| No | 48% | 70% | -22% | +8% |