Erdogan won the election and has less of a reason to block Sweden from NATO membership. A lot of his posturing about Sweden's decision not to extradite "terrorists" was to generate support for his election campaign.
0.080787
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Erdogan has the ability and geopolitical advantage to continue blocking Sweden from NATO until he gets what he wants from the West. While I don't think he wants "terrorists" from Sweden extradited, I believe he does want something else from the West before he stands down.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 6, 2023 02:37PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Jun 6, 2023 to Dec 6, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
There's a small chance that China decides to invade within the next six months due to increased escalations and more drills above and near Taiwan.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China needs more time to launch a full-scale invasion against Taiwan (and the West). The probability of an invasion, blockade, or attack against Taiwain is much more likely in the next five years, not the next six months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Putin has carefully placed allies within the government to ensure his protection and continued presidency. Powerful political figures in the Russian Federation see Putin as a way to generate money, power, and stability for themselves and the country. If Putin ceases to be president, the country would descend into chaos with warlords vying for power with private armies and nuclear weapons up for grabs. Those in power do not stand to gain much by removing Putin from power.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russian freedom fighters and civil unrest could potentially cause Putin to cease to be the president of the RF, but the chances of Russian citizens uprising, a coup attempt, or attacks on the Kremlin are fairly far-fetched at this point in time.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine and Africa means the majority of their budget is going to military spending. Any scientists or technology is being used for the war.
Files
New leadership means conservation efforts will be taken more seriously and there will be lots of eyes on activities related to protests and riots. Brazil will attempt to find peace with protestors and reverse previous administration's negligence.