Veikkakarvonen

I was forecasting with @nigoshh, @sanyer and @sanyero.

Based on prediction markets, probability of China's invasion to Taiwan before April next year is close to zero, so it's not going to affect my prediction.

The probability of natural disasters or pandemics that would influence the production, are also so low that I'm going to approximate them to be close to zero.

Cyberattacks remain to be the most probable cause for an emergency.

One shutdown caused by a cyberattack already happened in 2018, so the probability is more than zero.

There is some recent tension between the U.S. and China on AI after U.S. decided to impose export restrictions to curb China's access to key technologies used for artificial intelligence and China responding with deciding to restrict exports of two metals widely used in semiconductors and electric vehicles.

Still, China seems like the only viable source for a cyberattack. However, China doesn't seem to have strong enough incentive to create a cyber attack as they still depend on Taiwan to produce them chips and creating an attack would reveal critical information about their cyberattacks.

They could try to influence the upcoming Taiwanese presidential election, but there'd be easier and more flashy ways to impose an atmosphere of fear to the society.

I can't really find a realistic scenario with an emergency,  but I'm going to leave 2 % for the cyber attack and potential power outages.