7 months is a short time for someone doing everything to stay in power and not taking into consideration any costs. Devastated economy is rather an advantage to keep the people docile. Financial sanctions are not working the way they were meant.
0.009523
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
This is a real black swan which can hardly be predicted. Another riot and civil war might be on their way, but based on today's information there is no way to foresee them.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
According to the latest news, the aircraft has crashed.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-26%)
Yes
The time is short and there has been no significant development.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
The introduction of the new anti-terrorist law in Sweden and the F16 deal is likely to facilitate Türkiye's agreement on the matter, and Hungary is looking to get its own benefit from the situation, but will not be blocking as the last country. On the other hand, the procedure will take time and less than a month is left until the summit.
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The time is almost up.