There are enough authoritarian governments out there that at least one more of them could take action. The privacy angle is also a possibility.
0.149211
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Tech is too nascent to say that they're only going to use these photos/videos.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Feels like a toss-up to me. It seems almost a sure thing that someone will attempt to use LLM's in influence operations. The main question is whether they'll be successful enough to get mentioned by Meta.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
The tech seems too young for a rollout by EOY
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Less than 4 million
11%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
4%
More than or equal to 6 million
Trajectory of their signup numbers don't seem to be on pace to hit 4m. Blockchain tech has also lost its luster and I'm not sure people have real motivation to sign up for this.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Twitter seems unlikely since they're leaning into a hands-off approach to things like this in the post-Musk-acquisition world.
The other 3 all roll into a decision from Facebook. They seem more amenable to doing something like this, but I'm not sure the motivation will really be there.
Files