That's a long list of countries, any of which could take any number of actions for any number of reasons. The question becomes whether they move fast enough for the short timespan considered.
0.722045
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
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Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
News organizations want to publish newsworthy content. They would only take this step in response to widespread adoption of digital provenance, which is unlikely to occur by 31 May 2024.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Meta's reports are quite thorough and LLMs are low-hanging fruit for disinformation campaigns. But it may not show up in the report.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Provenance transparency is not in platforms' interest.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Less than 4 million
60%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
15%
More than or equal to 6 million
Worldcoin is experiencing roughly linear growth in new users. If the current slope holds, it will land between 4 million and 6 million, but closer to 4 million. Most new products fail, so a slowdown is likelier than a speedup.
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
It is not in platforms' interest to represent that any user-produced content is AI-generated. AI-enabled text generation is evolving faster than AI-enabled text discrimination, so it's unclear whether the performance of such a capability would meet the threshold for widespread distribution, even one year from now. Running a wide swath of posts through such a discrimination algorithm could also be expensive computationally (and hence financially). But there are two different companies responsible for these platforms (Meta and Twitter) and either of them could face enough pressure over the next year to go for this.
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