Several countries already have, most notably Italy.
-0.414546
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
The drive to "break" news in the digital age has significantly reduced publishing standards as it relates to source authenticity. Adding another layer of requirements for breaking news is highly unlikely in an age where advertising is running news rooms.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
It's almost certain that LLMs are being used in influence operations. Whether Meta can detect their usage on posts that are relatively short is the bigger question.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
There is no financial incentive to do so and the legal system moves to slow for this to matter in 2023.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Less than 4 million
7%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
3%
More than or equal to 6 million
AI generated content doesn't actually bother most people. Block chain based solutions are generally marginal applications. This company is relatively new and unheard of. I don't see a significant driver of adoption.
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
There is no financial incentive to do so. Just as with bots on their platforms, the primary metrics for share holders is "engagement". So net new accounts, activity on the platform, etc. AI generated posts makes it easier to create accounts with lots of activity which crudely translates into higher advertising prices and thus more shareholder value.
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