I think that certain countries might start to look into that but this is too soon for regulatory action unless there is a major incident involving it.
0.441272
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Again, probably works against their business models. They may publish certification of those that do but not ignore those that don't.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Adversaries are likely already using this technology and LLM input detection algorithms are on the rise.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Slow adoption.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
New applications of this nature are slow to be adopted. Concerns over privacy.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
It would hurt their business model.
Files