This would depend on the uptake of digital provenance systems. If this is not rolled out to a critical mass, it may result in the outlets missing out on content. At present the BBC regularly state 'this video or photo has not be verified' and has established BBC verify as a unit to undertake verification.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
Yes
69%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
Yes
49%
No
Success depends on 2 events occurring. 1) that AI is successfully deployed and 2) that it is detected and understood to be an AI generated campaign.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
Yes
27%
No
The value seems to be self evident. It will be interesting to see the impact, uptake and perceived value to users - which will drive further uptake and development.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
Less than 4 million
73%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Broadly this feels like a balance point between those that are informed, motivated early adopters versus the majority that aren't.
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Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
Yes
34%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Demand from users and regulators will push for this.
AI generated posts could become pervasive, lowering the perceived value of the platforms to users. This approach could help platforms respond.
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Why might you be wrong?
Spotting AI generated posts could become increasingly hard.
Files
Regulators are only starting to form early views the application and risks of AI - so while it may come, 2023 feels too soon.
The exception may by in China which may move much quicker to serve it's own purposes.