I think it is possible and a progressive step in the right direction, however I do not know how likley it will be.
1.423405
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
I believe it may be called something else in the report, but I do think there will be evidence.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Each of these platforms operate quite differently and likley have differing views of what this looks like. If it were to happen in 2023 I believe we would begin hearing about the adjustment at this point-halfway through the year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 4 million
100%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
I think those who do register will do it in alignment with their voting party.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
I think some platforms will be quicker to adapt the requirement than others.
Files