The BBC specifically is part of the steering committee for C2PA, drastically increasing the likelihood of this change.
2.118253
Relative Brier Score
0
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
How this will play out directly correlates to how "influence operation" is defined. However, given that there are tutorials for using LLMs to assist in marketing, engagement, and sales campaigns, it is difficult to see a world where this doesn't happen.
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Why might you be wrong?
If influence operation definitions are restricted to state-level actors, there is a distinct probability that we will not see it in the 2023 report.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Under informed on the specifics of this initiative, so I will refrain from speculating.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Less than 4 million
35%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
5%
More than or equal to 6 million
The adoption curve for blockchain overall is very low; most platforms and applications only have >10,000 users.
Even with the roll-out of the Orb solution to vendors and the current 1.2M alleged signups, it is unlikely that they will break the adoption curve this early in the process.
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Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
Yes
26%
No
The likelihood increases significantly if taken as a composite approach from each platform, with an independent probability for each platform's implementation.
With the availability of generative capabilities to the average user, there will be market competition between those that benefit and those that are disadvantaged or harmed by it. This will create a pointed public/private dialogue that will result in at least one company trying to implement a tag system but will likely not result in widespread adoption on all platforms. The lack of spread will be due to the convenience and interdependence that will be developed into existing platforms over the next year.
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This has already happened once before. Italy is listed on OpenAIs list of supported countries but has already experienced a ban. Link for reference.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406
Given that it has already happened once before and the list of supported countries is fairly inclusive, then the likelihood is extremely high that at least one will execute a temporary ban.