I think there are too many remaining underlying GDPR concerns that something such as a temporary ban won't pop up in an EU country (right to be forgotten, etc.)
0.228466
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
Yes
52%
No
Due to the speed at which these organizations tend to publish, I think this is highly unlikely in all of their content, but possible in some areas of their products/outputs.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
We are coming up on an election year, it seems highly unlikely that a bad-actor won't look to exploit what LLMs offer.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Section 230 largely protects social networks. No reason for them to go out of their way with the billons of posts on their platforms.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
Less than 4 million
40%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
15%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
There is not a critical mass need for this that can be easily understood by a wide variety of the public. It took nearly 10 years for TSA PreCheck to hit 10 million people - granted this is the US only, but that has a very tangible application. This will be much harder to communicate.
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Why might you be wrong?
Something could change dramatically in the next 2-3 months that makes this much more of a visible need.
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
If these platforms want to continue to operate in the EU, they will likely have to have some sort of label applied to them for AI generated content.
Losing the ability to operate within the EU would be a massive revenue hit for these companies, so I'm inclined to believe they are likely to work to display some sort of label. Google has already expressed that it is working towards this and Meta appears amenable as well.
Losing the ability to operate within the EU would be a massive revenue hit for these companies, so I'm inclined to believe they are likely to work to display some sort of label. Google has already expressed that it is working towards this and Meta appears amenable as well.
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Why might you be wrong?
Twitter, being operated by Musk is a complete wildcard and may be willing to pay any fines, etc. for not complying with potential legislation.
Additionally, unless Meta, Twitter, etc. launch their own public facing LLMs/generative AI, it's more likely that the oenus for this would fall on the AI companies themselves (ie: OpenAI) to watermark/label any of their outputs.
Additionally, unless Meta, Twitter, etc. launch their own public facing LLMs/generative AI, it's more likely that the oenus for this would fall on the AI companies themselves (ie: OpenAI) to watermark/label any of their outputs.
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