I could certainly see some luddite European nation doing this.
0.656188
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Unsure, hopefully though.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
I could see that next year given that such reports have already been simulated by OpenAI, who was able to find people to conduct work through WeWork, but we might need some time for more bespoke, non-safe LLMs to be developed
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Seems like one of the more straightforward tools available in their toolbox.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
50%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Seems niche.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Twitter currently does, for AI which interacts with the API. This relies on an API interface, so it might be difficult for the others.
Files