The EU's history of protecting its citizens' personal information and professional pursuits suggests they are most likely to effect a ban due to the potential harm and IP issues around use of OpenAI's models.
0.436922
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
71%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Reputable news sources have internal motivation to utilize tech such as C2PA, so I see it as possible, but not highly likely in the next year due to costs involved.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Use of this tech is too nascent for those with such nefarious intent to use in 2023. Very likely in 2024.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If a large state actor (Russia, China) were to share this technology with a non-state group with little to lose and everything to gain by conducting operations, perhaps on anonymous behalf of the state actor.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
I hope so! But do not think that there is enough financial incentive for tech companies to elect to adopt such intensive requirements.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
Less than 4 million
30%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
7%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
As someone in this industry who has not heard of WorldID, I fail to see how they will broaden their approach and visibility enough to more than double their current subscribers by September.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A highly visible and impactful criminal or nefarious event that includes fake personas or AI impersonation may drive a short spike in enrollments if it occurs early enough and on a large enough scale.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
Yes
67%
No
The action the social media tech companies took during recent elections and after suggest they can and will make changes to their platform in response to challenges in the information environment, however I believe the pressures from the public and interests of shareholders will hold more weight.
Files