There is no doubt that many countries view OpenAI as a threat and will likely block access to it. These countries will likely be hardened regimes such as DPRK, Russia, China, or Iran. It is probable that these countries will attempt to compete with similar platforms.
0.993543
Relative Brier Score
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
Files
None of DPRK, Russia, China, or Iran is in the list of supported countries - i.e. they have already banned it, hence they are actually irrelevant to the question.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Each of these media companies appear to support initiatives to tackle disinformation and would likely provide their support.
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Why might you be wrong?
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
These threats are likely to become more prevalent in the near future. As industry becomes more aware of these technologies they will increase their ability to detect them through research initiatives. However, it is difficult to assess how far along Meta is at identifying these threats.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
Yes
34%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Probably, as external threats increase with traditional and technically sophisticated adversaries it is probable the US Government will put increasing pressure on social media platforms to enable digital provenance.
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Why might you be wrong?
Without US Government involvement it is doubtful that some of these platforms would participate.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Less than 4 million
60%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Humans will do what is convenient which I why believe a majority of the world population will enroll in World ID. Despite this, many governments around the world have lost trust with the citizens as a result of their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. There will be a number of people who will resist enrolling in World ID as they will likely view this as a means of greater governmental control and a violation of privacy.
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Why might you be wrong?
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
AI generated social media posts could have a drastic effect on US free elections. It is in the best interest of the US government to address this issue prior to elections. Additionally, the EU has already made a plea to these social media giants to address this problem.
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Why might you be wrong?
Without US government involvement it is doubtful that all four of these social media giants would participate. Additionally, it is possible that even with US government involvement that our political parties would cooperate due to the state of the US political climate.
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