No, I think they will want flexibility to publish and this would limit this significantly.
3.333183
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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New Prediction
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Files
You say No (and you justify it), but your numerics say that a Yes (75%) is more likely than a No (25%); so, which of the two actually holds?
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
I could see either a Nordic or Baltic country possibly doing this.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Maybe not this year, but it will occur withing the next 2-3 years.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Yes, I think social media is going to continue to face significant repercusssions from disinformation propagated via their platforms. They will continue to be pushed to manage and mitigate disinformation. Digital provenance is a way to deal with some misinformation but leaves the platform out of the decision as to what is or is not disinformation. With digital provenance, the answer is binary, i.e. the picture does or does not belong to the source of information. An important question is, can the authentication be manipulated?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
There will be a tipping point where participation will likely profoundly increase, but I think right now there is a concern about privacy. People seem to be pulling back a bit from sharing the way they did during COVID. This will shift back to more openness, but not quite yet.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Because I do not think they see AI as a threat in the same way some seem to see dissenting points of view. I think the focus will remain on the content of the message rather than the source.
Files