Arguably, North Korea has has already done this.
-0.341208
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
79%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
The customer demand for this is not strong enough.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
Yes
33%
No
I think the IO operations are happening already and reporting will improve the credibility of Meta.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Demonstrably "True" information improves the value proposition of these platforms.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the technology for verification is unreliable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
Less than 4 million
9%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
2%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Until today I've never heard of this product. I don't see the value proposition for it and I expect it to be rejected by national governments.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If a large country is an early adopter, such as if India or China chose to use this.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Labeling a portion of the content as AI generated will undermine value proposition to those still using these social media platforms. I don't think they are likely to label items this way because it creates further uncertainty and doubt about their product. I think they are more likely to filter these posts rather than ID them as AI generated.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If a significant misinformation event occurs that creates custodian demand for change, that could make it more likely.
Files