This is probably unlikely do to the proliferation of LLMs beyond ChatGPT. Such a ban would not stop the proliferation of LLMs or their use.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
C2PA will not be widespread enough to justify only accepting photos with digital provenance. The news companies would face competitive pressure not to miss an important story. This would also shut out user provided film or video that are not C2PA-enabled.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's highly likely that LLMs are already being used in influence operations. The only challenge is proving this is the case.
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Why might you be wrong?
It depends on the standard of evidence that Meta will want to categorically state that an LLM was used in an influence campaign
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
C2PA has been discussed for years now and has broad support across industry and technology companies. It's also not overly onerous to implement. A company that enables this can demonstrate that it is being a good corporate citizen.
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Why might you be wrong?
Companies may have difficulties implementing the standard or may believe that the benefits are too modest to justify the expense of placing it on their platforms.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Proof of personhood will appeal to a segment of the population; however, there isn't an agreed-upon standard at this time (in my understanding). There will be some reluctance to sign up for an ID that may or may not be widely deployed and use.
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Why might you be wrong?
I could be underestimating the demand for this service. 4M users out of a worldwide user base of over billions is actually quite small so we could see this amount of uptake (far less than 1%).
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Enough pressure is building to rein generative AI. For example, congressional testimony on 14 Jun that highlighted extortion attempts using generative AI. At least one of these organizations is likely to attempt to self-regulate if they deem this possible.
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Why might you be wrong?
Some companies (e.g., Twitter) probably won't do this unless forced to do by Congress or regulators. The likelihood of legislation this year is probably low. In addition, labeling posts requires being able to determine the post was written by AI and unfortunately current detection mechanisms are rudimentary at best.
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