I don't see a country moving fast enough outside of China / NK banning it as a threat.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
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Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
It's a coin flip if it will become a standard I still fear that the want to be first will outway the need to be authentic.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Based on leaning in to the current political environment it would make sense to seed this threat in advance of the 2024 elections.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Until this is dictated by advertising this will not be adopted.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Less than 4 million
10%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
This is the first time I've heard of world id.
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Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
There will be public pressure to identify content from advertisers.
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