Due to the Gaza conflict and the current Israel government this is not going to happen.
0.270131
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Aug 7, 2024 12:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Jul 7, 2024 to Jan 7, 2025
100%
No
Jul 7, 2024 to Jan 7, 2025
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
Russian troops are tied elsewhere and these are NATO countries.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 7%
20%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
50%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
20%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
10%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine counter offensive has started and they've been able to capture back some of the Ukraine territories from Russian troops. They also have a much stronger motivation to win than Russian troops.
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Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine doesn't have the full capacity to continue the counter offensive and it will be advancing in some areas and losing elsewhere. The west may not be willing/able to give Ukraine enough support to really tip the scale. Russia may mobilize more troops if it seems that they are losing more ground to Ukraine. For them it is about the volume more than the quality. And so far this approach has been hard to fully overcome by Ukraine. Russia is also fully prepared to attack civilian targets and won't follow the common international rules of war fare.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The governance models for AI are gaining traction in many spaces. The transparency and trust for the big mainstream media has eroded especially in the US since 2016 and to emphasize this these type of decisions are important. Generative AI can also be used in a malicious way in order to influence public opinion and if these type of photos and videos end up in the media it has a profoundly negative impact.
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Why might you be wrong?
Gen AI develops so fast that it may be impossible for companies to keep up with it and they rather not do anything than do a wrong decision.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Large American chemical and O&G companies are very conservative and prob view these type of initiatives too woke.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
These companies still do a lot of green washing and may feel this type of collaboration would give a reputation boost.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Mr Erdogan wan the Türkiye presidential elections and continues in power. Sweden has insulted him (in his opinion) several times and hasn’t sufficiently made up for that (they don’t really understand this in the Swedish government as they are being arrogant and consider Türkiye being below Sweden). Therefore Mr Erdogan will drag this out as long as he can and at the same time he’ll use this to get weapons from the USA government if possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
He doesn’t look well, he’s cancelled many of his regular public appearances, there’s intressinsä critique towards him also by the Russian (unheard off before) and the war effort is not going well, is too costly for the Russian economy and makes the elite uncomfortable.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He gets the best treatmenr available if he’s sick and may last longer due to that, the public criticism doesn’t mean that he will be removed from power, the west doesn’t support Ukraine enough to give them an advantage in the war which will just go on for several years, no one is able to remove Mr Putin from his position cause he will give his immeadiate circle and. the guards so much money and other benefits.
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