Counteroffensive seems to be advancing slowly.
0.052249
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-2%)
Less than 7%
17%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
51%
(+8%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
20%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
4%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 22%
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than 7%
19%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
43%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
23%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
5%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Fog of war is thick. So I dont think you can rule out extreme outcomes (less than 7% and more than 22%). In general Ukraine is defender and has stronger morale to fight. Russia seems to have learnt some lessons from start of the war and Ukraine's assumed conteroffensive have not proceeded maybe as excpeted. Russia has had time to dig in and build defences. Seems though currently Ukraine has not started it's main offensives (no reports on some top western equipment such as Challengers or Leopards or top Ukraine battallioons participating in meaningful way). My main thesis is Ukraine will gain some land back till the end of the year, but to acquire even 5% percent back (17 -> 12) is hard. Ukraine will advance small bits with heavy fighting.
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Why might you be wrong?
Fog of war is thick. So I dont think you can rule out extreme outcomes. I assume Ukraine gainig territory so Russia would hold less than 7% Ukraine territory requires regime change or heavy political unstability in Russia. No sign of that currently but these things can happen very fast when gainin traction. On the other han Russia gaining more than 22% is not impossible either. I assume Russia advancing heavily requires ending or strongly diminishing western support or political instability. Political instability in Ukraine seems very unlikely and I think west will continue to support Ukraine till the end o the year, but it is not impossible that western support is not sufficient
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Why do you think you're right?
Time has passed since last forecast and nothing much has happened
Why might you be wrong?
Fog of war is still thick. Big unexpected things can happen in war.