Confirmed previous forecast
1.18116
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 7%
11%
(-14%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
15%
(-22%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62%
(+29%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
7%
(+7%)
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Time is running out of any other options
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Focus on Israel/Palestine might give Russia the possibility to manouver. Also Ukraine might go for a bigger counteroffensive in desperate need for breakthroughs as the war lingers.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 7%
25%
(-13%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
37%
(-11%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
33%
(+24%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine, but also current leaderships in USA and EU are under pressure to show some breakthroughs.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's easier to hold on to territory than regain it.
Files