Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 15, 2023 09:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 15, 2023 to Mar 15, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+15%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Well Russia at least is trying and already the Soviets had the technology.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The mission gets delayed or the mission is not a success.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 26, 2023 07:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Jul 26, 2023 to Jan 26, 2024
I give it even odds. I cannot decide which is more probable answer.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than 7%
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
14%
(0%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
47%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 26, 2023 07:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 26, 2023 to Jan 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Unlikely, however people are working hard for it. Turkey demans that Sweden should restrict demonstrations for PKK in Sweden, which makes it less likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Erdogan gets so many concessions from the USA that it will comply.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Less than 7%
6%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
14%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
30%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
47%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Russia will gain in the east. In the south Ukraine will lose itś momentum. After Russia gain's a lot of land a truce will be quickly negotiated with concessions from the West.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine will stop the attack in the east short or something dramatic happens in Russian politics.
Files