Too early to make this happen
1.829281
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
28%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
Yes
81%
No
Because they need to report on those videos if they are newsworthy
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
Yes
12%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Because they almost certainly have
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Meta could withhold this information
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
They have a strong incentive to have as low a barrier to posting to survive as businesses.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
58%
Less than 4 million
28%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
14%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
I don’t think enough people have heard of this and i don’t see a network effect present on this graph yet to warrant a spike before 1 September.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
external force could trigger an event demanding this.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are 4 different companies described here, increasing the chance this occurs.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They may choose not to, or technical inability to get it right.
Files