I don't think they will ban on this short turn around. There are benefits to AI that still need debating and exploring before a turnaround ban.
0.881326
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
I think it might take longer for them to make the switch.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
I'm not sure on this one. I am also not sure how obligated they are to share this type of information.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
I am not sure on the cost and change required on the social media platforms to make this change.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
There is onous on the population to take action and do something. I also think there will be trust-issues with signing up for this database.
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New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
News has been reporting the probability of this happening.
Files