Nobody cares about real info that much
1.723278
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Possibility for infrastructure by then
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
It’s happening and it’s spottable
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
No infrastructure
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Less than 4 million
15%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
I’ve never heard of it
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Platforms experiment in labeling of all sorts.
Files