Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 12:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 12:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 01:06PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 01:06PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 01:06PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 01:06PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Dec 03, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 97% | +1% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 05:33PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 05:33PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2025 04:21PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Dec 05, 2025 04:21PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2025 04:25PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Dec 05, 2025 04:25PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 15% | +0% | -4% |
| No | 85% | 85% | +0% | +4% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2025 09:32PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Dec 05, 2025 09:32PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026 | Jan 5, 2026 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026 | Jan 5, 2026 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 10, 2025 07:09PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 10, 2025 07:09PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 9% | -9% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 91% | +9% | +1% |