passage of time
-0.275031
Relative Brier Score
31
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 41 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
a technological breakthrough and or regulatory response compelling SM cos to implement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-2%)
Yes
94%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Currently, it is getting harder to mount the case that AI written posts can be accurately detected,
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some event forces at least one of these companies to make an announcement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-2%)
Yes
92%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
90%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
because AI said so ;), and so little time left for legislation to be proposed, debated and passed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A significant issue compelling politicians SM Companies to respond
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+5%)
Yes
0%
(-5%)
No
SLIM landed but some issues with solar power activating. JSA reported 2 rovers deployed successfully
Files
passage of time