The growth in this area got to a point where corporations try to milk current stage of tech for a prolonged time. But we are still at the point where competition might roll out something better unexpectedly. So there's 1/5 of a chance that openai will have to roll out next tech to keep itself above others.
-0.019887
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 7%
0%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
5%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
90%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
5%
More than or equal to 22%
This counteroffensive seems like a hype used to explain were money went instead of an actual military event
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
If we think of increase in quality of image generation, then it's obvious that music and song quality would increase at at least same margin – wich will most likely get it very popular.
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Why might you be wrong?
Public opinion might radicalise against ai, there could be restrictions by governments related to copyright laws and such
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
His group stayed in power for a long time,which means they are good at it. There's no opposing movement or group that present a threat to them. There's a slight possibility of health issues that will lead to change, there's also slight possibility of war related takeover. Otherwise I don't see reasons for a change.
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We are very close to september and still a little over 500k users after 2 years of linear growth. It would be a miracle if it gets to 4 million
@-----1692861909 the worldcoin page says 2M not 500k: