0.010746
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Vladimir Putin is the leader of Russia in war time. The war is one of attrition. Over the past 15 years, Putin has removed most opposition against him in the government and oligarch circles, therefore there is no real opposition to him. Putin represents the ultimate strongman persona that Russians look up to. While the average person may not agree with his policies, they do agree with the strength Putin represents for Russia on the world stage. So, while there is dissent amongst the people against Putin, it will not reach a tipping point to start a coup or revolution to remove him from power any time soon. Without the presence of political power against him that has the backing of people it would be very tough to remove Putin from being President by May 1st 2024. The 10% chance is if there are major losses in Ukraine which causes a rise in a political opposition backed by citizens.