RAND Forecasting Initiative

2023 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?	0.000307
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	0.000186
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.210528
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	-0.000007
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	-0.000009
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.000139
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	0.294745
Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	0.46551
Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	0.00506
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.045946