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I believe Putin is on shakier ground than in the past, but I don't believe he'll lose his grip on power before May 2024. It appears he has successfully dealt with the after-effects of the Wagner Group uprising. It will take some more time before a large segment of the Russian population begin to turn on Putin.
@DPL7823 welcome.
Now, just to give an advice: It helps if you consider the crowd forecast % for this particular forecast, since inputs from many participants has been discussed for months (aprox since May 2023).
I will provide a screenshot of the above menctioned data, to let you know that your input is higher % than the media of the crowdsource -diminishing the chances of been accurate- considering that the timeframe for this question is aprox 180 days. crowdsource indicator could be wrong , but is usefull to provide a value for a starting forecast.
and also, this data shows analysis of the tendency:
best regards.