Confirmed previous forecast
0.002999
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-7%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Putin seems to be consolidating power with the death of Navalny, and by being careful not to raise public discontent by doing a draft wave before the election.
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Why might you be wrong?
Russian politics has historically often been clearly headed to a predictable direction, until a black swan event hits the fan.
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New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
Russia's presidential election during the upcoming spring won't be free or fair, based on the Putin Regime's past record. Additionally, the war in Ukraine may give him an extra reason to stay in power, using the argumentation that he's the only one that can manage the country. A coup is unlikely as most of the FSB is loyal to him, as long as he pays for their salaries.
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Why do you think you're right?
The Sahel region's geopolitical turmoil means that many power hungry players with foreign backing (most notably Russian) may feel like it's their time to test the waters and take up arms against the current regimes.
Why might you be wrong?
A 6-month time frame is very constrained, and the immediate situation doesn't seem to be escalating extremely rapidly