Crowds accelerate.
0.322451
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not that fast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-4%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Why would he stop?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Death happens.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
It hasn't happened (and it's 31 October)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are still 14 hours left in UK time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
Why would he give up diplomatic immunity while he is still at war with Ukraine?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
By accident.
Why might you be wrong?
Not by accident.