RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:14PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	11%	-6%	-4%
No	95%	89%	+6%	+4%

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	21%	-6%	-14%
No	85%	79%	+6%	+14%

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 07:22PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	5%	+0%	-2%
No	95%	95%	+0%	+2%

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 06:37PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	10%	22%	-12%	-12%
More than or equal to 28%	90%	77%	+13%	+12%

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 06:37PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 06:37PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	8%	-1%	+2%
No	93%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	92%	+1%	-2%

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 06:38PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	44%	-4%	+1%
No	60%	56%	+4%	-1%

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 06:38PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	-1%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+1%

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