Confirmed previous forecast
0.367483
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-5%)
Yes
Updating to reflect passing time
Reasoning for potential ceasing : De facto is to remain and hold on to power at all costs. Health, some form or uprising or coup d'etat. Both possible but seem low probability in the timeframe.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
(+67%)
Yes
11%
(-67%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Successful launch
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Failure of mission
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Not long left and no strong indicators
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Yes
Reducing for passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
Yes
78%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Artemis 2 does not intend to land anything on the moon. Japans Ispace plans to land a rover but not until end 2024.
intuitive machines plan to launch with Space x in Jan and land on moon is key project within timeframe. NASA have assigned science experiments to the planned landing suggesting positive progress. However, previous planned launch in November was delayed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Other plans not yet seen
Intuive launch postponed
Files