Confirmed previous forecast
-0.081279
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
24%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is too absolute and ties their hands too much. If a photo or video is driving conversation, they can't stay out of the conversation. How can they report on how a fake photo is impacting the news cycle if they can't publish it? If they won't stop publishing "advertorial," why would they completely avoid newsworthy fakes?
They'll instead adopt a policy warning about media that doesn't have provenance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They might get burned so badly on a fake that they believe their only course of action will be to announce such a policy in the belief it will restore trust. I consider this a low likelihood.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
Yes
Putin has established that he can control Russia's electoral process and media. It would take a concerted effort from within the Kremlin to get him out and that doesn't seem likely. Putin is going to have to fail spectacularly in a way he cannot cover up with propaganda through state media. Only then might a large majority of his lieutenants see turning on him as the only way to save themselves.
I don't see a spectacular failure happening; just more slow attrition.
Files
OK, but in any case, it would be a good idea to include this explicitly in your rationale, so that it does not look somewhat inconsistent to potential readers 😉
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Identifying text content as AI generated is difficult in short-form text content. The heuristics for a 140-280 character post would be difficult.
Platforms are going to be leery of using it except in very specific circumstances where the AI origin can be a supporting element in a larger claim of the content being fake/untrue. But that's more likely to apply to images and video.
Still, I believe they will be VERY careful. Get it wrong, especially in a political context, and it adds fuel to the fire of conspiracy theories about social media censoring political speech that doesn't conform to their corporate worldview.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In a presidential election year, after so much interference by foreign actors and fringe domestic groups, the fact checking that will be going on may include such a label to further delegitimize false posts. That said, it will likely only be applied to posts deemed untrue, not broadly.
Files
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