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Putin has a great deal of Russia "locked down". It would require a major blunder or several to make him vulnerable. Perhaps a 'reaching too far."
@Phronesis5959 welcome!
As I menctioned in a comment on the recent post from @ddarden here https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/112898 new points of view regarding old questions are refreshing, specially considering the timeframe (end of this questions is 130 days from today)
Best regards.