SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

Louistoon

About:
Show more

-0.095613

Relative Brier Score

3

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 3 3 3
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 0 3 3 3
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Louistoon
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 20, 2024 08:05AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jan 20, 2024 to Jul 20, 2024

We would have evidence by now something was happening 

Files
New Prediction

Can't see why they would, and would be technically challenging to achieve 

Files
New Badge
Louistoon
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction

He might end up getting toppled, it may be difficult to predict when this may happen, but as Russia are in the slight ascendency, can't see it before may


He is also rumoured to be ill, but that might not be true, or if it is, doesn't appear to be an issue for near future

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username