RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 06:46AM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	67%	9%	+58%	-60%
No	33%	91%	-58%	+60%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:21PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	97%	97%	+0%	+1%
No	3%	3%	+0%	-1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:21PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:23PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	34%	-19%	+11%
No	85%	66%	+19%	-11%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:23PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

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