RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.426744
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	-0.074655
Apr 1, 2024 04:00PM	What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?	-0.002211

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