Jeenou

Revised: Increased the likelihood of a 30-day or longer ceasefire in the Israeli-Hamas war to 55% from 40%. "Representatives from Israel, the United States, Egypt, and Qatar have reached agreement on the basic outlines of a hostage deal for a temporary cease-fire," White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said yesterday, referring to the four-nation negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas for a cease-fire and the release of hostages. As such, there is a slightly higher likelihood that a ceasefire of at least 30 days will be reached by December 1, given the willingness of each of the stakeholders to negotiate a ceasefire. However, there are still contingencies, such as an Israeli attack on eastern Lebanon. 

Revised: The likelihood of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities remains at 12 percent. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said in a Feb. 19 briefing to foreign ministers from European Union (EU) member states that Iran is enriching uranium up to 60 percent purity at a high rate of about 7 kilograms per month. However, overall tensions in the Middle East have been moderating, with Tehran issuing instructions to pro-Iranian militants not to attack the United States. As both the U.S. and Iran continue to avoid escalation, an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is highly unlikely. 

Revised: Increased the forecast probability that Brent Crude Oil prices will remain below $90 from 60% to 80%. Prices have remained stable in the $80-82 range since the outbreak of Israel's war with Hamas, and with production from non-OPEC countries such as the US remaining steady, it is highly unlikely that prices will rise above $90 by the end of March. 

Revised: The likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas lasting more than 30 days has been reduced by 10 percent, from 45 percent to 40 percent. The UN Security Council met yesterday ( Feb. 20) with the situation in the Middle East and voted on a ceasefire resolution proposed by Algeria, but it was vetoed by the United States, a permanent member. Ceasefire negotiations have also stalled. Israeli negotiators in Cairo, Egypt, have withdrawn to their home country, and the Israeli government held a cabinet meeting on Feb. 18 and unanimously adopted a resolution rejecting any unilateral action to recognize Palestine as a state, rejecting the U.S.-backed two-state solution. While the likelihood of a ceasefire lasting longer than 30 days is relatively low at this point, ongoing mediation efforts by the United States and other Middle Eastern countries keep the door open. 

Revised: The probability of a Brent crude oil peak below $90 remains at 60%. With Brent crude oil hovering around $82 over the past week, it has been a while since we've seen a steady price with little movement. Also, as the Washington Post (WP) reported on Feb. 18, Iran has called on pro-Iranian militants like Hezbollah to stop attacks on the U.S. for fear of a direct confrontation with the U.S. and Israel, and President Biden has been cautious on Middle East issues, so the likelihood of a significant impact on oil prices by March 31 is very low. 

Revised: With tensions between Iran and the U.S. currently relatively low compared to two weeks ago, I have slightly lowered the likelihood from 15% to 12%. As reported by the Washington Post (WP) on 18th, Iran has called on pro-Iranian militants such as Hezbollah to stop attacks on the United States, fearing a direct conflict with the United States and Israel. Pro-Iranian militants in Iraq and Syria have not attacked the U.S. in more than 13 days, as of the 17th. This has not been seen since the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas broke out on Oct. 9 last year, making it slightly less likely than before that the U.S. would strike Iran's nuclear-related facilities. 

Revised: I have increased my judgment of the likelihood of a ceasefire of 30 days or more to 45% from 35%. First, the U.S. willingness to mediate ceasefire negotiations is strong. Of course, the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks broke down, but President Biden and Secretary Blinken have consistently demonstrated a willingness to negotiate a ceasefire. Second, European countries like the UK have begun to specifically discuss a two-state solution, and pro-Palestinian mediators like Turkey are actively working on it. Finally, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, with the United States, Egypt, and Qatar as mediators, are set to resume in Cairo, Egypt, Reuters/US CNN reported on Wednesday. As a result, the likelihood of a ceasefire of 30 days or more is higher than before, at 45%.

Revised: Crude oil is most likely to be priced below $90, increasing the probability to 60% from 51%. The price peaked at $82.13 in the past month, even as tensions escalated with the U.S. being attacked by pro-Iranian militants and retaliating in kind. The likelihood of a full-scale war by the end of March is very low, oil supplies from non-OPEC countries remain plentiful, and crude oil prices have stabilized below $90. Therefore, I believe that the probability of oil prices exceeding $90 by the end of March is unlikely. 

Revised: Although President Biden has implicated Iran in Hamas's attacks, he does not want to engage in direct war with Iran. It is also noteworthy that the Biden administration has avoided directly targeting Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Biden administration is also hampered by domestic political logic, particularly in the run-up to the November presidential election in the U.S. The probability of risking a new war in a presidential election year is very low. Therefore, the probability of escalating tensions leading to a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is very low and remains at 15%. 

Hamas had previously proposed a 135-day ceasefire in three 45-day increments with Israeli ground troops withdrawn, in exchange for all Israeli hostages and 1,500 Palestinian prisoners, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the ceasefire deal, stressing that "military pressure must continue for the release of the hostages" and that "total victory is the solution," according to a Reuters report on the 8th. Furthermore, Israel has ordered the military to "prepare a plan for the evacuation of Rafah civilians," saying that a major military operation against Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza bordering Egypt, is inevitable. Israel's continued determination to win and the failure of the ceasefire negotiations, which Blinken was optimistic about, have lowered the likelihood of another successful ceasefire deal this year. In the current update, Israel's unwavering determination to wage war, additional airstrikes, and Iran's continued active support for Hezbollah have all reduced the likelihood of a ceasefire deal, bringing the probability to 35 percent.