vex

Noel and I were in agreement that there is a low probability of an attack of this nature occurring, and if it does it would likely come from Israel. The US is loathe to engage in more offensive actions in the region, and Israel has been occupied with developments with its war on Gaza. No change to my forecast. 

Took some time to look at the crowd forecasting averages after my conversation with Noel and saw that my pessimistic (relative to my classmates) forecast of sub-50% or close to 50% chances of a ceasefire are not all that far off from the larger average. The average has trended towards 61-62% from early February onwards. If the wisdom of the crowds is to believed, the on-again off-again ceasefire negotiations have done little to convince individuals that a lasting ceasefire is on the horizon, even with such a long timeframe for this forecast to pan out. 

I brought my baseline forecast up slightly to reflect Noel's higher forecast and the crowd forecast average. Also, the recent coverage of the imminent famine might change Netanyahu's leverage for the worse. It's not entirely likely given the scale of the violence, but the stories of child malnutrition are spreading widely. 

Source: https://www.politico.eu/article/israels-netanyahu-says-he-will-defy-bidens-red-line-and-invade-rafah/

Tweaked slightly up after conversation with Noel. Prices seem to be climbing ever so slightly but nothing to indicate the price will shoot up dramatically. Also the crowd average is rising so I don't want to be too cautious. 

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

The shadow war between Iran and Israel is still underway, with a new-ish development since Feb 16th: Israel carried out covert attacks on two major natural gas pipelines inside Iran (1). This not an attack on a nuclear facility of course, but it disrupts the flow of energy for a country, which could have massive effects on the lives of everyday citizens. That said, there are no significant changes to the US-Iran relationship, save for regular attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria (2). Potentially, the ceasefire talks in Cairo this week will affect Iranian sentiment given the potential for renewed stability but I find it unlikely. My forecast remains unchanged. 

(1) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attacks-gas-pipelines.html

(2) https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-20-2024

The price of Brent crude has not made any significant moves upward since I began forecasting and I think there's a 92% chance that it remains below $90 by 31st March. The price of oil has risen since the earliest days of January, but there isn't anything to indicate that there will be an unexpected spike. 

The news on this topic has gotten infinitely more bleak since my last input here, which is actually persuading me to bring my forecast up a bit. I am moving my forecast to 52%, to reflect a slight probability that there will be a ceasefire within the calendar year. I am making this forecast despite some of the news indicating to the contrary! I think the hard-line approach taken by Israel is slowly wearing down the international community. The fact that there has been no change in Israeli elite or even public sentiment at the destruction of Gaza and mass civilian death is telling that if others don't act on behalf of Palestinians, a whole civilization is at risk of being decimated. I don't think that will happen, and I hope that's not just my optimism talking. Below is my evidence to support my thinking that Israel is not ready to agree to a ceasefire yet: 

The potential invasion of Rafah has led mediators to ramp up their efforts, with new peace talks occurring in Paris on Feb 23rd (1). The last time these talks were held, Hamas' counterproposal to Israel was  rejected as "delusional" by Bibi (1). There are still more than 100 hostages remaining in Gaza and Israel has said countless times they will not pull out of the fighting until they have achieved their military goals and ensure "Hamas is eradicated" (2) and Bibi released a postwar position paper that indicates an interest in full Israeli military control of Gaza  (4). Also, the clock is running out on the hopes that Arab states will not intervene, as Ramadan is coming up soon in three weeks and the invasion in Rafah is imminent (2). “If there’s an operation against Rafah, we can forget about a deal happening,” was quoted by a mediator in the latest peace talks (3). Washington has also been unwilling to use its leverage to call for a ceasefire, which would be cutting military aid funding. In fact, the US even vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza (2). 

(1) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-it-is-awaiting-new-truce-proposal-mediators-talks-with-israel-2024-02-23/

(2) https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/02/23/gaza-ceasefire-and-hostage-deal-talks-begin-in-paris-today-heres-what-to-know/?sh=43dd25fa6a38

(3) https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/21/politics/israel-hamas-negotiations-ramadan/index.html

(4) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/24/opinion/gaza-ceasefire.html

The US's response to Iran's attack in Jordan has been more muted than anticipated (1), perhaps reflecting a risk averse mentality within the US government's executive office. I will not change my forecast. 

(1) https://www.mei.edu/publications/us-response-tower-22-attack-jordan-less-intense-more-restrained-anticipated

I have slightly shifted my forecast to reflect the small upward trend in recent days forecast. I still overwhelmingly believe the price will not exceed $100. 

I will not adjust my forecast because there have been no changes in the relationship between Israel and Gaza. At this point, both parties have made their ceasefire or truce offers and there is no indication from third-party mediators that either side is more amenable to further negotiation in the near future. According to a RAND commentator, "successful cease-fires require both sides to believe that such a cessation serves their interests", and I am not convinced that either side is able to make those types of concessions at the moment.